46 Nebraska Cattleman August 2023 A Cyclical Glance As I pen this piece just a couple days after Independence Day 2023, we appear on the verge of trading finished steers and heifers in the Nebraska Cattlemen Market Reporting Service (NC-MRS) trade area near $290 dressed and $182 to $183-ish live for a third consecutive week. This comes after settling back for a few weeks following the bulk of NC-MRS reported sales being inked at $300 dressed and $190 to $192 live during the first full week of June – stamping in new alltime highs for the fed cattle trade by a considerable margin compared to the $270 dressed, $172 to $173 live highs for significant volume during late 2014 and very early 2015. There has been little doubt in my mind that the widespread and mostly drought-driven aggressive beef cow liquidation over the past two-plus years would result in new historical highs for the fed cattle trade, but the dizzying push higher in cash values late this spring was both “higher and faster” than what I had anticipated might be the case. Let’s look at a couple more important data points for the sake of perspective. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Jan. 1, 2023, estimate for beef cows calved in the United States was 28.9 million head (down 4 percent vs. a year earlier). That number was also 100,000 head fewer than the previous cycle’s smallest estimate of 29 million head in Jan. 1, 2014. (If you’d rather say those numbers are virtually the same, I won’t quibble with you.) However, comparing the two Jan. 1 datasets from nine years apart, I’ll submit there are some interesting differences to point out. First and foremost, the retained beef replacement heifers data point for Jan. 1, 2014, was 102 percent vs. a year earlier, while that same Figure 1 CONTINUED ON PAGE 48 MRS Update By Jeff Stolle NC Vice President of Marketing
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