48 Nebraska Cattleman August 2023 Tough and Dependable Construction Built with features to last, Johnson Waterers withstand punishing weather and prove to be dependable year after year. Johnson Waterers are the best waterers available. – 38 different models to fit any need – 15 to 240 gallons – Complete line of repair parts for all waterers – No. 1 Waterer in the industry! Setting the industry standard since 1957 THE BEST NAME IN CATTLE WATERERS Hastings, NE 68901 Competitive pricing 1-800-752-1670 • www.johnsonconcreteproducts.com JOHNSON CONCRETE CATTLE WATERERS Consider This data point on Jan. 1, 2023, was only 94 percent vs. Jan. 1, 2022. Put another way, expansion of the beef breeding herd had started by Jan. 1, 2014, while the Jan. 1, 2023, data clearly showed that aggressive liquidation of breeding females was still ongoing (and through the first six months of 2023, the trend of “cows going to town” may have slowed a bit, but it remains intact). Further, 2013’s total calf crop was estimated to be down only 1 percent vs. 2012, while the 2022 calf crop was pegged 2 percent smaller than 2021. (This is further confirmation of how rapid the pace of downsizing has been at the beef industry base production level over the past couple of years.) In my humble opinion, there is really nothing in the data that suggests late November 2014 through early January 2015 is analogous to early June of 2023 from a cyclical price peak standpoint. Historically, cyclical highs in calf and yearling values are the result of widespread heifer calf retention to replenish cow numbers. This results in the tightest calf and yearling numbers during any given cycle. Following the 2011-2012 drought, heifer retention was well underway by Jan. 1, 2014. However, there’s nothing in the data to this point to suggest widespread heifer retention is yet in the cards as of the early second quarter of 2023. In any given year, spring-born calves tend to outnumber fall-borns by roughly 2.75 to 1. So generally, the fed cattle industry tends to transition to a new calf crop as a baseline for available finished numbers during the spring to early summer of each year. At the risk of some oversimplification, 2022’s calf CONTINUED 〉 MRS UPDATE • CONTINUED FROM PAGE 46 From a baseline production standpoint, the die is cast for the next couple of years – fewer calves, fewer yearlings, fewer fed cattle and declining domestic beef supplies.
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