August 2023 Nebraska Cattleman 49 crop becomes the baseline for available fed cattle numbers by about June of 2023. From a “big picture” standpoint, the 2022 calf crop was not the smallest of this cycle, as cow liquidation during that year was far too active for that to be the case. The 2023 calf crop will be smaller yet in total – that die is already cast – and the sharp escalation in calf values for fall delivery is bearing out that fact. Figure 1 is a chart that I use in a lot of my presentations for NC members and affiliates. It plots annual average prices for five-weight steer calves in western Kansas vs. total cattle inventories. While 2023 average data is obviously not yet available, the most recent market tests for that weight class of steers in Kansas has been around $270 per hundredweight (cwt), some $20 per cwt or $100 to $120 per head above the annual average peak data point back in 2015. From a baseline production standpoint, the die is cast for the next couple of years – fewer calves, fewer yearlings, fewer fed cattle and declining domestic beef supplies. In my humble opinion, the main questions to be answered at this point are: 1) When and to what extent will cow herd expansion commence and stamp in the tightest overall calf and yearling supplies of this cycle? 2) Has the upward spike in prices at industry production levels over the past few months taken us close to cyclical “high tide” levels, or have we simply seen the “first leg” up? One can make a rather solid historical-data-centered argument that the latter could well be the case. NC FOR SALE – Cattle Feedlot 176 acres in Rock County, Neb. with 6,500 head permitted feedlot Contact us for more information 402-375-3385 or info@midwestlandco.com Dave Ewing 402-375-9086 Jerry Lewis 402-380-8323 Location: 9 miles south of Bassett on U.S. Hwy 183, then 2 miles west to the feedlot. Looking for a place with lots of possibilities? This place has it! Property could be used for calving cows, backgrounding calves or for fat cattle. • 23 feeding pens; 3,660 ft. of bunk • Drover alleys • Automated water tanks • Well water with pressure tank • Office and shed • Shop building • Feed storage • Truck scale • Dwelling • DEE permit Midwest Land Co_1-4 vert, 4c_NC0823.indd 1 AgriAffiliates.com | Your Feedlot Appraisal Experts What’s the Value of Your Feedlot in 2023? An Appraisal or Market Evaluation from Agri Affiliates is prepared by experts who understand the industry. www.albersfeedlot.com JEFF ALBERS (402) 380-0103 jeff@albersfeedlot.com TODD SCHROEDER (402) 841-6862 todd@albersfeedlot.com CHASE ALBERS (402) 380-6831 chase@albersfeedlot.com Wisner, NE 68791 | (402) 529-6626 Modern and well-maintained facilities Dedicated crew with ability and accountability We are active supporters of cash cattle marketing Risk management available ALBERS FEEDLOT Steam Flaked Rations! Four Generations of commitment to your cattle feeding profitability.
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